Methodology Update:
I will be adding the polling misses to the model to more accurately predict outcomes. I discuss it at the start of the video before filling in the map. I will not be doing this every single time because it adds a lot of runtime.
TL;DW
3rd Party candidates are always overestimated in polling, Trump is always underestimated.
Baseline Update:
From Likely Republican to tossup:
Nevada, North Carolina
source
Once one candidate wins New York and California, its really an uphill battle for the other candidate to get to the 270
This channel just seems like a trump meatrider bot
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