Methodology Update:
I will be adding the polling misses to the model to more accurately predict outcomes. I discuss it at the start of the video before filling in the map. I will not be doing this every single time because it adds a lot of runtime.
TL;DW
3rd Party candidates are always overestimated in polling, Trump is always underestimated.
Baseline Update:
From Likely Republican to tossup:
Nevada, North Carolina
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