The panic about Trump beating Biden has to stop

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— The panic about Donald Trump beating Joe Biden in November needs to simmer down a bit
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Broadcast on January 29, 2024

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41 COMMENTS

  3. I think Biden will end up winning due to the independent vote, and while the economy is doing well overall, most working-class people are not able to reap the benefits because the economy hasn't improved a lot in the areas they are participating in (groceries are still expensive and so is gas compared to what it was prior to the inflation we had).

    Of course, for those of us who have a significant portion of our wealth in investments, our wealth has grown a lot. Basically, the economy is doing great for those at the top and those in the middle and the bottom are struggling.

  6. Being a swing voter that voted for Obama and Trump, can't even dream of voting for Biden in 24. Although not a MAGA fan but I fundamentally agree on Trump's approach to border crisis, this President despite having a trifecta for 2 yrs kept the border chaotic and hurt the bordering States. Last week my friend was attacked and mugged by a criminal who shouldn't even have been allowed to enter. Enough is enough.

  17. honestly, if that panic drives more Biden voters out to the polls…then so be it. Hate to say it, but Dems have traditionally been lazy voters. Overconfidence is a major reason why we lost 2016. Everyone, including Trump, assumed Hillary was just going to win. So I'm sure there are a significant number of people who would have voted for Hillary, but stayed home. She only lost by around 77K votes in the right states….

  20. David, I will give you where Allan Litchman's 13 Keys To The White House currently stand (please note that Litchman has not made an official prediction yet):

    Party mandate – definitely False (the GOP flipped the House in the midterms)
    No party contest – definitely True
    Incumbent running for re-election – definitely True
    No third party – Undetermined (RFK Jr. seems to be fading, and is likely to fizzle out before Election Day: stay tuned here)
    Short-term economy – True (there's nothing to indicate a recession in 2024)
    Long-term economy – True (it would require 2024 annual GDP growth of -3.6% – 1.4 points lower than in 2020 – for this key to turn false: there's nothing to indicate that happening either)
    Major policy change – definitely True (policy changes from Trump administration, many pieces of other signficiant legislation passed)
    No social unrest – True (the Captiol riots took place two weeks before Biden's inauguration, and nothing has come remotely close to the 2020 anti-Trump protests)
    No scandal – True (bipartisan recognition of serious impropriety is required to turn this key false – all the GOP and Fox News have here is pure weapons-grade balonium)
    No major foriegn/military affairs failure – True (this holds unless there is an event such as a Russian victory in Ukraine or the ceasefire and hostage release deal negoitations in Gaza fall over completely)
    Major foriegn/military affairs success – Undetermined (a breakthrough in Ukraine or a successful ceasefire and hostage release deal in Gaza would turn this key true)
    Charismatic incumbent – definitely False (this requires a once-in-a-generation inspirational candidate and/or a national hero: Biden doesn't qualify)
    Uncharismatic challenger – definitely True (Trump is not even remotely close to being a once-in-a-generation inspirational candidate and/or a national hero)

    Thus, Biden has two definitely False keys, two keys that are currently Undetermined, and nine keys that are True (four definitely are, while the economy keys are almost certainly so).

    Given that six or more False keys are required to predict a Biden defeat, it is very likely at this time that Joe Biden will defeat Donald Trump and win re-election – personally, I fail to see how four keys will turn False before November.

  22. I absolutey agree with you David. However, if it was Nikki Haley running against Joe Biden the dynamics change massively.
    She could beat Biden. She has a much better of beating Biden than Trump does that is for sure.

  23. People have seen the "schtick show" for way too many years and the constant drama is draining. Biden is working hard in his office and doesn't spend alot of time golfing.

  28. Ok but the problem is a lot of Americans feel gaslit about the state of the economy. Inflation is still crazy and unfortunately most people act like the President calls companies and sets prices. I will not put it against white voters in the Midwest to summon the end of democracy if it means they think they can save a few cents on gas and food.

    That is what worries me, along with the left refusing to vote for Biden over Gaza

  29. I have said it was time to panic for months, so I'm not swayed by any of these arguments. Nothing you said is incorrect, but:
    1. No president has ever been this low in approval and been re-elected. Biden is 3 points lower than the lowest approval rating any president has had in an election year and then gotten re-elected.

    2. Biden's numbers are not just a blip or a few bad news cycles, he diminished consistently downward from about 43 last March, and has not recovered virtually any of the points he has lost in nearly a year now. This is especially alarming since there are essentially no big primary nights, no debates, and Biden is not out there giving speeches. This indicates that there are very few events remaining that can improve his numbers or give him momentum, and he doesn't appear to have any right now. If Trump is leading in September, do not expect debates then either.

    3. Unlike virtually any previous president, one of Biden's biggest weaknesses among the electorate is something he cannot possibly change (his age and how he looks and sounds). One could argue that Trump's insanity was an obstacle he could not overcome in 2020 because he couldn't just decide upon the political strategy of "being sane" for a few months and winning. Biden cannot decide upon the political strategy of "being young-looking and spry" for a few months. Perhaps the thing hurting him most, and far more than it did in 2020, is immovable. And he only won by fewer than 50,000 votes in 2020.

    4. Trump's popularity has never been affected by the bad PR he receives. Not when he turned the 2015 Republican debates into a food fight, not when the Access Hollywood tape came out, not when Avenatti or Mueller or the impeachments were going after him, not when he bungled COVID. He got 11 million more votes in 2020, after all of that happened. His numbers today are not budging regardless of the defamation finding, the tax fraud trial, the indictments, the mugshot… Anyone who has not already left Trump by now is not going to leave him even if he is convicted, which they'll dismiss as a witch hunt. He is at his floor already, with every possible piece of negative PR anyone can be hit with, and he is still leading.

    5. Trump only needs to get to about 46% to win. If he is hovering around 41% approval right now, he just needs 5% of people who want (for whatever reason) to vote against Biden, and that's incredibly easy to find with so many voters out there. Biden needs about 51% to win (which is what he got last time). If he is at 39, that's a gigantic mountain he has to climb, with a less-activated and less-enthusiastic base, when he's barely out there campaigning.

    Trump has a 95% chance to win.

  32. I believe the swing states will bail us out once again. Itā€™s more important that the administration gets people on the ground in Colorado, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan, and Nevada to grr er t the youth vote popping. My daughter will be voting for the first time, but weā€™re in California, so it doesnā€™t have as much weight. However, like David, Iā€™m positive that Biden will win so he can continue to help move the country forward, not backward like MAGA wants.

  33. I love to debate maga, but now, with the ā€œBigly Lieā€, they are losing their minds talking about Civil War. Iā€™m sure it would last about 2 days, but, the frenzy Trump has caused concerns me if he does win, our country will fundamentally change for the worse. They are delusional at best.

  36. I can't imagine how out of touch you would have to be to think of this economy as "solid" and to think that we don't have any major calamities going on. It's astonishing. The type of stupidity that can only be manifested out of the most privileged life circumstances.

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